Figures for likely firearm sales in the country last month dropped below a benchmark that has held since 2019.
Some 1,936,621 federal background checks were processed through the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System in July 2025. That figure reflects a 4.2 percent decrease from the FBI NICS figure of 2,021,235 in July 2024.
When the National Shooting Sports Foundation adjusted the numbers for last month to remove gun permit checks and rechecks, the adjusted figure stands at 978,731. This is a steeper drop of about 8.1 percent compared to the July 2024 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,064,790.
Further, it is the first time in 71 months that the figure fell below the 1 million mark.
Speaking to gun industry insiders, there are several reasons for the decline, spanning from the traditional seasonal slowdown in sales to a tight economy and the change of management in Washington that has abated gun ban fears.
"Summer months routinely show lower background check figures than other times of the year, and we’ve watched as the background check figures came down from astronomical highs several years ago," Mark Oliva, public affairs officer with the NSSF, told Guns.com via email. "There are factors that contribute to this, including relief of concern that politics would deny some from being able to exercise Second Amendment rights to purchase a firearm of one’s choice and economic uncertainty."
However, it should be pointed out that the true number of guns sold nationwide is higher than what the NICS figures may show. This is because federal background check numbers don't include private person-to-person gun sales in most states or cases where a carry permit is used as an alternative to the background check requirements of the 1994 Brady Law, which allows the transfer of a firearm over the counter by a federal firearms license holder without first performing a NICS check. At least 28 states have such a Brady exemption in place.
Further, the data doesn't capture homemade firearms unless they were assembled on serialized frames or receivers, or purposely registered by the builder with local authorities.
Still, Oliva pointed out that the nation's gun industry will continue to roll with the punches.
"Firearm manufacturers continue to work to produce high-quality, safe, and reliable firearms to meet the demand of discerning customers across the nation," he said.
Banner image: A Savage Revel DLX in .22 LR. The North American-made lever gun featuring a 12-round tubular magazine is new to the Savage catalog and is suppressor-ready. The receiver is drilled and tapped for size #6-48 screws, allowing those looking to add a scope base to do so.
